The "Keys to the White House" model suggests that President Biden currently maintains a slight advantage over former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 election matchup. Allan Lichtman, a renowned election predictor with a successful track record since 1984, devised this predictive formula, which has often proven accurate.
Lichtman's methodology involves 13 true or false questions aimed at predicting the outcome of a presidential race. These questions cover various aspects of the candidates' backgrounds and the political climate. For each question answered "true," a candidate earns a "key," while a "false" answer grants the key to their opponent.
As per Lichtman's analysis shared with MarketWatch, Biden currently possesses five keys, while Trump has garnered approximately three. This leaves five keys undecided, offering an opportunity for Trump to gain ground before the November election.
The keys outlined by American University, where Lichtman teaches, encompass factors such as party mandate, incumbency, economic conditions, policy changes, and charisma of the candidates, among others.
Biden benefits from the incumbency key, automatically awarded to sitting presidents. Additionally, Biden's absence of a significant third-party challenge and his economic performance during his term contribute to his key count.
Conversely, Trump gains a key due to the Republican Party's majority in the House of Representatives. Lichtman also suggests that Trump's perceived charisma advantage over Biden grants him another key, and potentially an additional one if Biden fails to achieve significant success in foreign or military affairs.
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