A new survey indicates that Vice President Harris is gaining ground on former President Trump in several crucial battleground states as the election draws nearer.
According to a poll released Saturday by The New York Times/Siena College, Harris is ahead of Trump in Arizona (50 percent to 45 percent) and North Carolina (49 percent to 47 percent). This recent surge has led her campaign to declare North Carolina, where Trump previously held a strong lead over former President Biden, as a potential win for Democrats.
In Nevada and Georgia, Harris has nearly closed the gap with Trump. The survey shows Trump leading Harris by a slim margin in Nevada (48 percent to 47 percent) and in Georgia (50 percent to 46 percent).
Across the four Sun Belt states, Trump and Harris are tied at 48 percent, the survey reveals. Winning at least one of these states, in addition to three key Rust Belt states — Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — is crucial for either candidate to secure the presidency.
Harris's national polling numbers have steadily improved since President Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and endorsed her. She officially became the Democratic nominee earlier this month and will formally accept the nomination alongside her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, at the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
A separate Times/Siena poll earlier this month showed Harris leading Trump by at least four points in the Rust Belt states. Before Biden's withdrawal, Trump had a 3 percent lead over Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
The August 10 New York Times/Siena poll found Harris leading Trump by four points in these crucial Rust Belt states. Earlier in the year, Trump led Biden by three percent in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all essential states for Democrats to maintain control of the White House.
The latest poll results mark a significant improvement for Democrats compared to a similar survey conducted in May, where Trump led Biden by 50 percent to 41 percent in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. North Carolina was not included in that earlier poll.
The recent poll comes after the independent election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from “lean Republican” to “toss-up” as Harris continues to erode Trump's lead in many battleground states.
Democrats are also showing more enthusiasm about the presidential race with Harris at the top of the ticket compared to Biden. About 85 percent of Democrats say they are at least somewhat excited about their candidate and the election, which is significantly higher than in the May poll.
Around 85 percent of Republicans are also at least somewhat excited to vote, similar to the May poll.
Harris has a 48 percent favorable rating, matching her unfavorable rating, according to the latest survey. This is the first time a Times/Siena poll has tested her favorability in these states, although national surveys earlier this year found Harris had a net unfavorable rating of up to 19 percent in February.
Since launching her campaign, Harris has quickly gained momentum, particularly online, where her posts on platforms like TikTok have re-engaged young voters who were previously disillusioned by Biden’s candidacy.
This boost is reflected in Saturday’s poll, where Harris holds a 13-point lead over Trump among TikTok users in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. In May, Biden only had a three-point lead with this demographic.
The poll also shows a growing divide in voter preferences along racial and gender lines. Harris has the support of 84 percent of Black voters and 54 percent of Latino voters, according to the survey.
Overall, Harris leads Trump by 29 points among nonwhite voters in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, compared to Biden’s 17-point lead in May. Conversely, Trump has the backing of 66 percent of white voters without a college degree in the four Sun Belt states.
Support for third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has decreased since the May poll, with his support averaging only 4 percent across the four states, according to the poll. His candidacy no longer significantly impacts the race between Trump and Harris in these states, a trend seen in other swing states as well.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling index shows Trump leading Harris nationally by 1.8 percentage points — 49 percent to 47.2 percent — based on more than 100 surveys.
The latest Times/Siena poll surveyed 2,670 registered voters across the four states from Aug. 8-15. The margin of error for the polls in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia is 4.4 percentage points, and in North Carolina, it is 4.2 percentage points.
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