Vice President Kamala Harris is either leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in six out of seven key battleground states, significantly impacting the 2024 presidential race following President Joe Biden's withdrawal last month, according to a poll released on Wednesday.
The Cook Political Report Swing State Project poll reveals that Harris holds a slight 1-point advantage over Trump in the critical states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harris has 48% support across these states, while Trump has 47%, with 5% of voters undecided or choosing not to vote.
Since the last Swing State Project survey in May, when Biden was the likely Democratic candidate, Harris has gained ground on Trump. She now leads in five battleground states and is tied with Trump in Georgia. Nevada is the only state where Trump is ahead, though Harris has reduced his lead there by 6 points since May.
In direct match-ups, Harris has a 3-point lead over Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, whereas Trump had a 2-point lead over Biden in Michigan and was tied with Biden in Wisconsin in May.
Harris also leads Trump by 2 points in Arizona, overturning his previous 1-point lead over Biden. In North Carolina, she has overcome Trump's 7-point lead from May and now leads by 1 point in Pennsylvania, where Trump previously led Biden by 3 points.
In Georgia, Harris and Trump are tied at 48% support, a shift from Trump's earlier 3-point lead over Biden.
Harris’s lead widens when third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are factored in, with her holding a 4-point lead in Arizona and a 5-point lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Overall, she has a 2-point lead across the seven states when other candidates are considered, with RFK Jr. receiving 5% of the vote.
Harris has gained momentum in both national and swing-state polls since launching her campaign after Biden's exit. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average shows Harris with a 1.4 percentage point lead over Trump based on 114 polls.
The Cook survey, conducted between July 26 and August 2 among 2,867 likely voters in the seven swing states, has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.83 percentage points. The margin of error for individual state polling varies, with Arizona at 4.7 points, Pennsylvania at 4.8 points, and the remaining states at 4.9 points.
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